Keel Point Insights

Check out our guides, tools and research for expert help on all your
life planning, wealth planning, and familiy management questions!

& Videos

Awards &
Press Releases


Keel Point
in the News

Market Recap – September 25, 2023

Keel Point

September 25, 2023

The Fed last week left its Fed funds interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, but signaled that interest rates are going to be “higher for longer.”  Markets responded with the 10-year U.S. Treasury rising to 4.45% — its highest since 2007 — and the S&P 500 falling 2.93%.

  • The Fed’s end-of-meeting statement provides good insight into their current thinking: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. … Inflation remains elevated.”
  • Their September Summary of Economic Projections (“SEP”) indicated one more ¼% rate hike in 2023, its policy rate at 5.1% at the end of 2024, slightly lower 2023 year-end PCE inflation, and stronger economic growth: doubling its 2023 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% from 1% in June and increasing its 2024 forecast to 1.5% from 1.1%, i.e. the “soft landing.”
  • Although happy to see their increased optimism for the economy and labor markets which will be supportive of equity markets, we believe there are still some risks to growth and low unemployment from the higher interest rates and negative money growth.
  • Economic growth and the unemployment rates are not linear, meaning they can change abruptly and without notice. In the “past 12 recessions since World War II, average real GDP was 3% in the month prior to the start of recession.” (BofA Global Research & Bloomberg)

The Rise of generative artificial intelligence is increasingly a focus of business and top government policymakers, with the heads of Google, Microsoft, Tesla/”X”, FaceBook and others recently appearing before Congressional leaders.

  • McKinsey consulting suggests AI could contribute $49 trillion to U.S. GDP over the next decade by augmenting labor and capital productivity. Its research estimates AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually across the 63 use cases it analyzed.
  • Fed governor Lisa Cook recently indicated AI’s macroeconomic impact depends on whether it turns out to be a “general purpose technology” that improves productivity across a wide array of industries, as tech advances and electrification did a century ago. (Axios)


Disclosure:  Securities offered through Keel Point Capital, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC.  Brokerage and Investment Advisory Services are offered under the Keel Point brand. Investment Advisory Services offered by Keel Point, LLC an affiliate of Keel Point Capital, LLC. While reasonable efforts have been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Keel Point does not give tax, accounting, regulatory, or legal advice to its clients.

Related News & Articles

Market Recap – May 20, 2024

Financial markets greeted positively the April consumer and producer price index data showing inflation slowed for the first time this year.  The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined, and the S&P 500 closed the week up 1.5% and up 11.2% so far in 2024. ...

read more

Market Recap – May 13, 2024

Financial markets were steady last week, and the S&P 500 was up 1.85% from the prior week’s close and up 9.5% so far in 2024.  The April CPI reports on Wednesday, May 15, and core CPI inflation is likely to change only slightly from higher than expected than...

read more

Market Recap – May 6, 2024

The Fed meeting and an across-the-board weaker April jobs report caused volatility in financial markets, which by the end of the week had settled and closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.55% last week and 7.5% year-to-date.     As much as the Fed seems...

read more