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Market Recap – November 14, 2022

Keel Point

November 14, 2022

The most important news last week was the better-than-expected October CPI inflation report which spurred financial markets to rally on the belief that the Fed can ease back on the pace and ultimate level of interest rate increases.

  • With the Fed already having signaled a more risk friendly slowdown in rate hikes, October’s core CPI rate increase of 0.3% m/m (annualized at 3.3%) increases the likelihood of it increasing its Fed Funds rate only by 50bp in December and by 25bp at the Jan 31/Feb 1 2023 meeting.
  • The opportunity for a “soft landing” is also much improved, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model November 9 estimate for 2022 Q-4 real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is 4.0%, up from 3.6 percent on November 3.
  • Disappointing is the decline in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index to a five-month low of 54.7 in November, down from 59.9 in October, principally as a result of the negative impact of higher interest rates.

Mid-term elections have left Democrats with control of the Senate and are still favoring Republicans to control the House of Representatives with a small majority.

  • As of Sunday evening, Democrats had captured 203 Congressional seats with Republicans having won 212, leaving just 20 House seats undecided. Of those 20, Republicans need just 6 to have a majority and Democrats would need to win 15 to retain their majority.
  • The Georgia Senate run-off election is still important to restraining progressive tax and spending policies, especially if Democrats do succeed in gaining a majority in the House

 

Disclosure: Securities offered through Keel Point Capital, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC. Brokerage and Investment advisory Services are offered under the Keel Point brand. Investment Advisory services offered by Keel Point, LLC an affiliate of Keel Point Capital, LLC. While reasonable efforts have been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Keel Point does not give tax, accounting, regulatory, or legal advice to its clients.

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