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Market Recap – June 24, 2024

Keel Point

June 24, 2024

The economic news last week was generally positive, and stock prices were up for the week.  The S&P 500 and All-Country World Index are up 14.6% and 11.1%, respectively, this year.    

  • There is concern about how few stocks are experiencing earnings and share price growth in 2024. Some segments of the market are only now experiencing better earnings growth but are expected to have better performance as Q2 earnings season reporting approaches.
  • Technology and AI infrastructure stocks are principally responsible for new stock market highs.
  • For the five years ending June 18, 2024, the S&P 500 is up 106%, including tech companies, but up only 69% without them. (Axios)
  • The Magnificent 7 stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla & Meta) reported 50% earnings growth last quarter vs. no quarterly earnings growth for the other S&P 500 companies, which are forecast to grow earnings 9% in 2024.


Data: S&P Dow Jones. Chart: Axios Visuals.

The recent good news on inflation, economic growth and robust labor markets doesn’t fully mitigate the risks of slowing growth and sticky inflation and the dangers of increasing Treasury borrowing requirements for the rest of this year.

  • The Fed’s efforts to reduce inflation are made more difficult by the $2 trillion federal deficits in both 2023 and 2024 (est.) when the economy is at full employment and growing steadily.
  • The longer-term risk of high deficits and increasing interest payments on a rapidly rising U.S. national debt becomes more immediate as leading candidates for national office voice proposals for more spending and/or lowering tax revenues rather than reducing deficits and debt.  (Visual: on June 23, 2024.
  • With the national debt approaching $35 trillion today versus $6 trillion in 2000, the danger of eroding investor confidence is a greater risk for U.S. Treasury borrowing and equity markets.

Disclosure:  Securities offered through Keel Point Capital, LLC, Member FINRA and SIPC.  Brokerage and Investment Advisory Services are offered under the Keel Point brand. Investment Advisory Services offered by Keel Point, LLC, an affiliate of Keel Point Capital, LLC. While reasonable efforts have been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Keel Point does not give tax, accounting, regulatory, or legal advice to its clients.

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