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Market Recap – December 4, 2023

Keel Point

December 4, 2023

Financial markets reacted favorably to the positive updates on earnings, inflation, growth, spending, and consumer well-being reported this past week.  Mid- and longer-term Treasury yields declined, and stock markets were up.  The S&P closed the week up 0.87%, up 8.9% in November, and up 20.15% year-to-date.

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures core inflation was up only 0.16% month/month in October, bringing core inflation down to 3.5% over the past 12 months and to a 2.4% annualized rate over the past three months, and 2.5% over the past six months.
  • Fed Governor Waller’s remarks last Tuesday raised expectations that the Fed could begin cutting rates in March of 2024, as inflation closes in on the Fed’s 2% target by mid-2024.
  • Both real consumption and real disposable incomes rose in October suggesting real GDP growth will slow to between 2.0% and 2.5% in the current (fourth) quarter, after growing 5.2% — newly revised annualized rate — in the third quarter.
  • The OPEC+ announcement of new cuts in oil production last Thursday was followed by falling U.S. and international price benchmarks. Economic troubles in China are reducing its oil consumption which limits OPEC’s production reductions impact on global oil prices. 
  • Economic updates this week will focus mostly on employment: job openings, productivity, new jobs, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and consumer sentiment.
  • Remarkable stock market performance in November, with the S&P 500 now up 20% for the year, could give rise to some pullback in early December as markets digest the exceptional returns in both stocks and bonds.
  • Economic fundamentals, earnings, and market technical data all support continued equity buying. Bloomberg reports the ratio of insider buying to selling is at a 6-month high, and Bank of America’s buyback desk is reporting record business. 


Corporate profits from current production, across the U.S., grew 3.3% to an annualized rate of $3.28 trillion in the third quarter.   

  • S&P 500 companies’ Q3 net-income was up 4.1% over the prior year, and earnings per share were up 7.1%. The outlook for earnings per share growth over the next 12 months remains positive.


Disclosure:  Securities offered through Keel Point Capital, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC.  Brokerage and Investment Advisory Services are offered under the Keel Point brand. Investment Advisory Services offered by Keel Point, LLC, an affiliate of Keel Point Capital, LLC. While reasonable efforts have been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Keel Point does not give tax, accounting, regulatory, or legal advice to its clients.

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