There is much to be thankful for in the U.S. economy: third quarter GDP growth at 4.9% is a gift from consumers as we are seeing slowing growth but no recession in the current fourth quarter, slowing wage and price inflation and likely achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation...

Last week’s CPI inflation report buoyed both bond and stock markets causing mid- and longer-term Treasury rates to fall and stock prices to achieve their three-week straight rally, with the S&P 500 closing the week up 2.44% and up 18% so far this year. October CPI...

Last week’s news was hardly uplifting for financial markets, but the S&P rallied 1.56% on Friday to close the week up 1.17%. Year-to-date the S&P is up 15.46% which is consistent with the historical average for year-3 of a presidential election cycle. Paul...

Last week financial markets were boosted by the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates, the October employment report being weaker than expected, and longer-term interest rates declining. The Fed didn’t raise rates last Wednesday, and the post meeting press...

Coming to the end of the three months that are often the most difficult for equity markets, the S&P 500 has entered a “correction” and is down 10.3% from its July 31 high for the year.  It is suffering from the barrage of negative headlines on recession, growth...

The discussion on soft landing and recession is heating up as to whether the Fed “needs” to create a recession to wring out the last bit of inflation.  GDP growth is averaging 2.1% in the first half of 2023 and expected to be 3.5% (annualized) in the third quarter –...

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) increased the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption to $11,180,000. This exemption represents the amount of wealth that can be transferred during life or at death to descendants without triggering gift or estate tax. The lifetime...

The big news last week was that September CPI core inflation declined but at a slower pace.  This decline, along with rising mid- and longer-term Treasury rates, will allow the Fed not to raise interest rates any further this year.  Year-over-year headline inflation...

The big news last week was the September employment report showing a 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and upward revisions of 110,000 jobs for July and August.  Equity markets rallied and the S&P 500 closed higher for the week. The Household Survey showed the...

The Fed’s “higher for longer” message, and higher longer-term interest rates last week, almost made us miss the good news around GDP growth and declining inflation.  August Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation index reported last Friday was up only 0.1% in...